Oscar Predictions – 2025

Every year on this blog I talk about the Oscar nominees and the potential winners in each category. It’s the reason this blog exists and it’s a fun thing to do around this time of year, even when (thanks to a real-world job that takes a lot of my time) I’ve missed a few of the bigger films that got a bunch of nominations. I still can look at some of the bigger trends and have a guess about how the ceremony is going to go… it also doesn’t help that, as usual, some of these films are incredibly hard to find in Australia in a way that I can legally see them at a convenient time. So, here are my predictions for what will win, what should win and the wild card choice that might sneak in at the last minute.

Besides, if the members of the Academy can vote for movies to win the award without ever watching them, I can predict what they’re going to do without seeing everything.

This year’s best picture Oscar was almost destined for Emilia Pérez. It had the most nominations, it had the most (undeserved) love from the critics and was going to give the Oscars the chance to seem progressive by giving the biggest award of the night to a movie set in Mexico starring a trans woman. This award had its fate sealed the minute that the nominations came out… and then the main star was revealed to be a massive asshole and now Emilia Pérez is so toxic that every award it’s up for is tainted. It feels like Conclave is probably the one that’s going to do the best here, largely thanks to the Best Picture’s use of ranked-choice voting and Conclave is the exact kind of film that does well in that kind of scenario. Now, if the choice were up to me then it’d be The Substance just because I wish for chaos and that choice would be glorious chaos and also because it’s one of the most original films that’s been nominated since Everything Everywhere All At Once. The potential surprise winner might actually be Emilia Pérez, because even with everything that’s happened it still might end with the Oscars trying to appear progressive.

Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist, Dune Part 2, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys

I swear if they give this to Jacques Audiard I’m going to lose my fucking mind, just putting that part out there.

Looking at how this season has gone, and because he’s been somewhat of an Indie darling for a while and the Oscars might want to celebrate talent on the rise, Sean Baker feels like he’s got this. He just won the Directors Guild Award, the Producers Guild, the Writers Guild, he’s kind of taken so many awards already that it’d be a shock if he didn’t get it. His biggest competition might be Brady Corbet who took home the Globe and directed one of the most nominated films of the night, so he might sneak through if they just give it to him because he happened to make the longest film of the bunch. Now the one that I would like to get it and who should take it home is Coralie Fargeat, and no not just because she made my favourite film on the list (OK it’s partially that). No, she should win because The Substance is insane and she made it work. She pulled out amazing performances from everyone, delivered one of the most pointed critiques of Hollywood I’ve ever seen and just made a generally amazing film, plus we need more women to win this award damnit and she deserves the hell out of it.

Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist

Even without seeing 3 of the films, this is a race between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet. The two of them have kind of been going toe to toe with each other at the various ceremonies, Adrien got the Globe, Timothée got the SAG, it’s kind of back and forth. Honestly up until the SAG awards got announced I would’ve said Adrien, but Timothée winning the SAG does kind of suggest he might take this. It would mean the Academy can give Timothée an Oscar which would be smart cos he’s a young superstar that they can use to pretend they’re still cool but also because they generally love biopics and he’s the one with the more marketable biopic. Adrien’s my wild card here cos while he’s taken it a lot, they have already given him one and I don’t know if they want to repeat that (if Halle Berry is presenting that award, someone get her a guard!). What I want is Sebastian Stan to get it, that’s the ideal option. Not only is it a great performance and not only has Sebastian Stan put the work in to deserve it… it would REALLY irritate the fascist fuck in the White House if the movie that showed him raping his former wife (and note, she recanted the word rape but not the description of what he did, which was describing something pretty rapey) won an Oscar

Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist, Sing Sing

When I first saw The Substance I stated that Demi Moore’s performance would join the pantheon of Horror performances that the Academy would brutally snub due to their long-standing hatred for the genre. It made sense at the time because The Substance is not only a horror film but an over-the-top body horror film that bluntly critiques how older women are treated by the industry… and now I can say that Demi Moore is the front runner for this award. She deserves it not only for this performance (which is pitch-perfect) but for her entire career. With the momentum that’s been built up, combined with one of her competitors basically being cancelled out of existence (There’s a world where I’d be writing this about how Karla Gascon was going to be the first trans woman to win this but her bigotry ruined that) this award is Demi’s to lose at this point. If anyone is going to take it from her, I would say it was Mikey Madison for her work in Anora who has also done quite well this season, though I would not be mad at all if Cynthia snuck in at the finish line.

Unable to see: I’m Still Here

Do I even need to say who is getting this one? Do I? It’s Kieran Culkin, that’s the winner and it’s basically ordained at this point. His run this awards season is comparable to Ke Huy Quan’s a few years ago when it’s actually hard to find ceremonies where he didn’t take the big award home afterwards. Culkin is running out of sarcastic ways to accept awards, he’s probably just going to hit the podium and go “thanks” and then split and that’ll be fine because he’s made more speeches than anyone else this cycle. He’s the winner and who I would want to win. If anyone’s going to sneak on in here as some insane wild card then it’s gonna be Edward Norton and that’s only because he’s been nominated four times and they surely have to give him one eventually.

 Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, Brutalist

Despite it having the most nominations of the entire night, Emilia Pérez is a bad movie that should not take home anything whatsoever (I thought this BEFORE the backlash to Karla’s Twitter history destroyed the chances for this movie getting anything). However, if the film was going to take home anything, it would probably be this award for Zoe Saldaña. It shouldn’t, the movie is bad and I’m sorry to say this but she is not good in it, but she has the momentum and the industry loves her and she’s been doing the right things that should end with her getting the award for a performance that doesn’t deserve it. Now, personally, I feel like this should go to Ariana Grande because she delivered one of the greatest Musical Comedy performances that has been put on film and truly deserves every bit of praise she’s gotten (her work in the Popular number alone should have netted her this award) but unless the Emilia Pérez backlash is much stronger than I thought, this is going to Zoe. My only thought of a wild card is that Isabella Rossellini has been around long enough that this might be a “you deserve this for sticking around” award but that’s a long shot, it’s going to Zoe and I just have to accept that.

 Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, Brutalist

The Oscars rarely like to be cool, it happens so rarely that it’s a genuine shock when they pull it off but this year with Original Screenplay they appear to have a chance to be cool and would be completely justified in doing it. The Substance’s script is so strange, unique and fascinating that just reading over it paints the perfect picture of the film in question. From the glorious description of the opening shot of Eggs to the way it uses the font size to set the tone. It’s seriously the only script of this year you genuinely need to read to witness a masterclass in how to make a great script work and should take everything it has ever been nominated for. Now if it doesn’t (and it should, I want it to, it deserves it) then it feels like giving the award to A Real Pain might be their sneaky way of giving Eisenberg the Oscar that they probably feel they owe him for The Social Network. He would definitely have earned it, his script is good… but it’s not a script that makes the description of a chicken leg feel like the most repulsive thing on earth and that should matter.

Unable to see: The Brutalist, September 5

As for Adapted screenplay… well, I didn’t see most of those films, can’t really judge fairly on that one. Next time I will plan better, this time I just fail.

Is anyone gonna be shocked when Inside Out 2 takes this one? Anyone? The first movie basically instantly had this award and in my opinion, the second one is even better, it feels like a done deal at this point. It doesn’t even seem fair to the competition to have anyone else here, Inside Out 2 has pretty much got this one on lock and it’s not going to shock me when it does so. What might surprise us all as the wild card entry is The Wild Robot which has been taking a ton of awards this season including the Annie awards (awards specifically for Animated movies) where it dominated. If anyone’s going to sneak in and surprise us, it’ll be them.

Unable to see: Flow, Memoir of a Snail, The Wild Robot

Normally, even without ever being able to see most films in this category (Thanks Australian Releasing habits… you suck) I would lean into the good old “If it’s nominated in International Feature and Best Feature along with a bunch of other categories, it’s getting International at bare minimum” rule to give this award to the most nominated film of the night but I genuinely feel like the Emilia Pérez backlash is big enough that it might’ve fucked itself here too. Now, I don’t think it’s going to stray too far from that rule by giving this to either Flow or I’m Still Here which are the only films nominated in another category but still, it will be a surprise if Emilia Pérez has messed up badly enough to ruin its chances at the one award it was basically guaranteed based on what it was nominated for. It went from being the certainty to the wild card and while I haven’t seen it, I want Flow to win because it means Emilia Pérez won’t and also cos that cat is cute. I feel like it’s going to go to I’m Still Here because clearly enough people saw that to nominate the lead actress, that might help it a lot.

Unable to see: Flow, The Girl With The Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How is Wicked here? Someone, please explain to me how on earth Wicked is here? Original Score for a film where most of the music is just from the Broadway show? Original.. REALLY?!  Hell, how is Emilia Pérez here when all its music is shit? Look, can we just say this is probably going to Conclave and move on? Cos Conclave is taking something home and I feel like this might be one of its better chances. Other than that… look, I hate it being nominated but again, Wicked would be the better option over Emilia Pérez and since I don’t know the other two, I’m sticking with what I know.

Unable to see: The Brutalist, The Wild Robot

…for the love of god give Diane Warren a fucking Oscar or she’s going to burn the place down. At some point nominating someone every year becomes actual torture, just bite the bullet and give her the damn award. Do I know the song she wrote? No. Is it good? Probably, but she should’ve won it 20 damn years ago and you’re being a cocktease at this point so give her the damn award. If you can’t give it to her at least give Elton another one, or even the Sing Sing people just not… you know what one

Sound honestly does feel like it should go to Wicked, almost entirely because they put Cynthia Erivo in a flying rig and had her sing Defying Gravity live on set while being thrown around in the air. Give them the award for doing that without it sounding awful, it’s a hell of a trick and it’d be nice to see them get an award. The wild card feels like it’ll be Dune Part Two, mostly because the first movie won this category and so if they just repeated that then maybe this will win.

Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, Dune Part 2, The Wild Robot

It’s about time that we saw Robert Eggers’ team get an award for making his insane determination to recreate historic time periods come to life. The way that the world of Nosferatu feels completely real, well lived in but also stylised as hell is a miracle that should be studied by a bunch of priests. It’s kind of a miracle of design that they pulled off, give them the damn award. If they can’t get it, then maybe give it to the film that planted thousands upon thousands of bright flowers for 20 seconds of film in an opening scene… that dedication to a visual is insane. These people are insane, give them all awards to protect us all.

Unable to see: The Brutalist, Dune Part Two

Nosferatu is one of the best looking films of this year and I will fight you on that. It’s a visual marvel with the best cinematography you could have imagined. Every single frame looks like it should be hanging in an art gallery. It’s perfection in every way and I believe it not only should but will take this one. Really the only one I think might sneak in here would be Dune: Part Two and honestly for the same reason I think it might sneak in for Sound, the first movie won this award so why not go for a second one?

But also, how is The Substance not nominated here? That film is 95% visual storytelling and all of the cinematography is perfect, how is it not here?

Unable to see: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

This year there are so many great moments of Makeup and hair that each of these films have utilized to create magic. A Different Man had the amazing makeup Sebastian Stan wore to mirror a medical condition shared by another member of the cast, Emilia Pérez did makeup to make a trans woman look like a cis male in a way that proves you can cast trans women in trans roles that involve a pre-transition period, Nosferatu has the incredible Count Orlock makeup look, The Substance had the nightmare creature that closes out the film and Wicked turned Cynthia Erivo green… Ok, so they aren’t all as elaborate as each other. This feels like the award that The Substance was born for, not only for the monstrous creature that concludes the film but for being able to take Demi Moore and slowly turn her from the goddess she is into a withered crone in a believable way. I wouldn’t be shocked if Wicked snuck in though, I might joke that they mostly got this for turning a woman green but they did it so well that it deserves the nod.

Can we all just admit that Wicked is probably snatching this one up? Its costumes are elaborate, iconic and fascinating. They have to not only feel like what was worn on the Broadway stage but also reference the 1939 classic without infringing copyright which is insane in itself but damn if every costume doesn’t just work here. It’s something special and it should take it home, though there might still be some love for the elaborate ancient Roman costumes of Gladiator 2 that’ll help carry it through to the end.

Unable to see: A Complete Unknown, Wicked

Editing is hard because the best editing is the editing that you don’t notice but the academy tends to give this award to the obvious editing that’s also quite bad (hi Bohemian Rhapsody). Being another technical award, I do think this one might end up going to Wicked, a big blockbuster movie getting the technical awards is nothing new and that might be how this works. However, if we go by “obvious editing gets them to notice”… fuck, Emilia Pérez might take this one in a shocking surprise, I just feel that in my bones.

Unable to see: The Brutalist

…if I said that Better Man deserved this for how they made me care about the Robbie Williams monkey, how many tomatoes would be thrown at me? Because I do genuinely think that the Robbie Williams monkey is going to take it, the effects work is spectacular from start to finish and it’s all about the main character in the film. If he doesn’t work then the film doesn’t work and frankly, he works. Of course, the problem might be that none of the people voting watched that movie and so Wicked might sneak in another technical Oscar here which would certainly be nice, but I feel like it’s going to the monkey movie (…wait, there’s two monkey movies? Ok then, Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes can be our wild card, why not?)

Unable to see: Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes

And that’s my set of predictions. Sure, I might have missed some of the bigger films, but hey, maybe that’ll surprise me and give me a reason to catch up with them later. What do you think will happen this year? Will the Oscars do the cool thing, or will we be horrified by what they normally are?