It’s that time again, the time when people who have no business making predictions about who should and shouldn’t win an Oscar give you their heartfelt opinions on who should and shouldn’t win an Oscar… It’s me, I’m people. I’m doing that exact thing this year because I do it every year, it’s what started this silly little blog so why not keep doing it?
I have to admit, this year is going to be somewhat of a drop in excitement from last year. Last year’s ceremony felt joyous, we watched the underdogs of Everything Everywhere All At Once absolutely dominate. It felt like we were seeing people who normally get ignored or forgotten get their due and it was hard not to watch that ceremony with a sense of joy and awe… yeah that’s probably not happening this year because the obvious Oscar bait film is probably dominating the ceremony.
As usual, I will say what I think SHOULD win based almost entirely on personal taste, what I think WILL win based on a combo of how the Oscars tends to behave and other ceremonies and what the WILD CARD will be based on me being a little chaos gremlin who wants to see a shocker win happen at least once. Any films that I couldn’t see in time for the ceremony will have that mentioned in the text underneath the image, and yes it does make me absolutely insane that there’s still a bunch of Oscar-nominated films that are impossible for me to see easily by the time the ceremony begins but I’ll restrain that insanity as much as I possibly can.
Due to not seeing a majority of the entries, I have skipped the following categories
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Documentary Feature
- Best Animated Short Film
- Best Live Action Short Film
- Best Documentary Short Film
Unable to see: Anatomy Of A Fall, The Zone Of Interest
Normally this category has a few real contenders, ones that are good enough to break through the barrier and be fun winners and ones that are just undeniable… and then there are ones that are basically just going to get it because it feels ordained. Oppenheimer is that film, it’s basically had the entire Oscar ceremony locked down since it came out and nothing’s really approached it in terms of what the Oscars tend to look for. Sure there are more fun entries, a Barbie win would be iconic and absolutely fucking hilarious, but this is going to be Oppenheimer’s year. The only thing that feels like it might be a real surprise is Poor Things, but that would be the biggest surprise win of the decade if that were to happen and I don’t think this year is a year for shockers.
Unable to see: Anatomy Of A Fall, The Zone Of Interest
Speaking of shockers, it’s a shocker that this category couldn’t find room for Greta Gerwig who directed the biggest blockbuster of the year and did something that many thought would be impossible by making a film about Barbie into something actually compelling. Though I guess it’s good that she didn’t make it because this year the award is basically already set to finally go to Nolan, and for good reason. Christopher Nolan probably deserved this award a few times already for some of his earlier films but he’s just never quite pulled it off. This year feels like it’s the year he’s going to finally make it happen. His only serious competition that I would kind of like to see as a surprise would be Scorsese, only because it’s absolutely insane that Martin Scorsese only has one Oscar and it’s for a remake but there’s no real chance of that, it’s Christopher Nolan all the way.
Here’s another category that feels like the winner was basically locked in before the nominations came in, this one’s going straight onto Cillian Murphy’s shelf for his fascinating performance in Oppenheimer and it’s actually well-deserved, not just for that performance but that actor has given enough great performances that he was going to get one eventually and this is as good a time as any to do it (though maybe he should’ve gotten it for his role in Red Eye several years ago, that’d require the Oscars to be cool). At the moment it feels like his big competition might be Paul Giamatti and there is a chance that Paul could swoop in and take it if Oppenheimer exhaustion kicks in during the voting process and Paul probably should have one of these as well (Big Fat Liar deserved Oscar gold, you cowards) so it’s basically a race between those two, with Paul as the wild card who could come in out of nowhere. Personally, I’m on team Colman Domingo because his work in Rustin is just captivating and it would be kind of awesome for this underdog to slip in and become the first openly queer man to win Best Actor (open at the time of winning it, Brando and Spacey were not out when they won), but I don’t expect it.
Unable to see: Anatomy Of A Fall, The Zone Of Interest
This is another one where there’s really only two options and everyone else is just here for the ride. Based purely on performance and on history, this feels like it’s Emma Stone’s year to become part of the rare club of people with 2 acting Oscars. Her role is over the top, unique and something that really shows off all her skills and the Academy clearly loves her so it feels like she is going to end up taking it home… but god do I want nothing more than for Lily Gladstone to take it, partially because her performance is the thing that makes Killers of the Flower Moon work but also because I just want to give her a few minutes with that microphone on the Oscars stage to see what happens. It also feels like Lily has the momentum to pull this off since she won the Golden Globe and SAG awards, the SAG award, in particular, being a pretty good precursor for this category since it’s the same group of voters. The potential surprise here could be Annette Bening who probably should already have one of these awards after being nominated 5 times, if anyone was going to get a legacy Oscar this year she’s who I would bet on… but let’s be real, it’s between Lily and Emma.
Also yes, it is insane that Margot Robbie got snubbed here.
Let’s be real, this category has been Robert Downey Jr.’s to lose since the second awards season began. Downey has been dominating Supporting Actor, just taking it every single time he’s there and he frankly deserves it. Robert Downey Jr has the kind of career that deserves to be immortalised with a nod from the Oscars and it’s great to know that he undoubtedly has it in the bag. That being said, Ryan Gosling is who the people want to win this and it would be glorious as hell if he won. A comedy performance getting nominated is a rarity in itself, but winning? An outright comedy (not comedy-drama, just a comedy) hasn’t won this award since 2006 so it’d be a very fun thing to happen. In reality, the award is just between those two and everyone else is just honoured to be included in the category with those two. The smart money says Downey, the heart says Gosling.
If we are looking at who has been taking this award most often this season, it looks like Da’Vine Joy Randolph is going to be the 10th black woman to win in this category which will be a pretty historic moment in itself. It makes sense, while her role is the smallest part of that film it’s also just amazing to watch her any time she’s on screen. Now, personally, I would love to see Danielle Brooks taking this home because she absolutely shines in The Color Purple and it’d be nice to finally be able to say that someone won something for The Color Purple since no one from the original got anything, but the smart money would be on Da’Vine… of course, there’s an outside chance that the love for Oppenheimer has enough power to push Emily Blunt into getting her first Oscar which would also be long overdue, but Da’Vine has the momentum to take this one home.
Unable to see: Anatomy Of A Fall
Screenplay is always a hard one to guess because you kind of have to figure out which script spoke to the Writers’ Guild. Normally you can tell because the Oscars tends to be the last thing awarded and the Writers Guild Awards are given out a week before… this time the Writers Guild Awards aren’t happening until April so this is something of a guessing game. Past Lives feels like it’s going to be on top of the list to get this, Past Lives probably should’ve had more nominations and it’s such a charming film that it fits into what tends to win this award. That’d be what I think will win, but I do hope that The Holdovers sneaks in with its genuinely witty script that feels like the type of film we don’t get to see anymore. The wildcard here is Anatomy of a Fall, a film I didn’t get to see but it did just win the BAFTA and it is nominated so often that it will be weird if it somehow goes home with nothing.
Unable to see: The Zone Of Interest
The Oppenheimer sweep feels like it’s going to include this, it just feels like this entire night is going to try and pull off giving Oppenheimer a chance at the big five awards (Picture, Actor, Actress, Direction and Screenplay) and it won’t shock me if that happens here. It just feels like the smart money is on Oppenheimer in pretty much every single category you could think of. Now the hopeful surprise would be that Barbie sneaks in and gets this award, it would be a good way for them to give Greta Gerwig an award she absolutely deserves and considering how smart and funny that script is, it feels like an easy choice as a winner to make it seem like the Oscars actually likes popular cinema (because they do not wanna do what the Globes did and just give an award to the film with the biggest box office… they tried that once with that stupid “movie moments” thing, the internet trolled them into the stupidest results, never again). Of course, it would be kind of cool if American Fiction took this one so it can take home something during this ceremony but that’s an outside chance.
Unable to see: Robot Dreams, The Boy And The Heron
The First Spider-verse movie won this award handily a few years ago, Across the Spider-Verse managed to match that film in every possible way and is also going to take this award handily. It deserves it, the animation is truly next level with a blending of assorted styles that somehow all fit together. It’s going to take the award home and there’s nothing anyone can do… that being said, Nimona sneaking in and taking the Oscar after almost being killed by Disney would be the most amazing way for that story to end (and hell, maybe seeing a film come back from the dead and win an Oscar might do something about our David Zaslav problem #LeakCoyoteVsAcme). There’s another Spider-Verse movie coming out, they can take the award that year, Nimona winning would be a better narrative. The outside wild card is The Boy And The Heron, which has won this award before at a few other major events including the Globes so it might just pull enough votes to take the win.
Unable to see: Napoleon
When it comes to creating an entire world through the magic of production design, it’s hard to deny that this award is basically destined to go to the team behind Barbie. They took the strange plastic pink playsets that fill the pink shelves of toy stores and turned them into physical landscapes you could walk around in. Everything from Barbie’s Dream House to the CEO Boardroom are immaculate creations that pull you into Barbie’s world. If I had to go with a backup there’s a chance that the strange unique world of Poor Things might have a chance, the scenes that take place on the boat alone could probably justify it but this is the year that this category belongs to something pink.
Unable to see: Napoleon
Taking the tiny doll costumes that every little child knew so well and turning them into actual fashionable items of clothing that adult human beings could wear is genuinely a miracle. Every look Barbie wears in the movie is based on a real thing that they made for Barbie dolls and the ability to not only make those grow in size but look natural while doing it is astounding. The costumes help enhance the story so much and are truly something special. Again, the only real competition that comes to Barbie in this category would be Poor Things due to the strangeness of the outfits that help inform this weird little world that we’re placed in. Frankly, it feels like Production and Costuming are going to go to the same film this year just because there are only two films that really embraced the strange things you can do with those groups.
Unable to see: El Conde
No one makes a film look as epic as Christopher Nolan and his cinematographers, who are basically destined to win this. Every shot in Oppenheimer is truly epic, flawlessly framed and moves with great intention. They wanted the audience to feel like they were experiencing the intensity of the nuclear blast and god damn it they pulled that off. I’ll say it again, tonight is going to be an Oppenheimer sweep and it won’t shock anyone when this award goes to this team… except maybe the team behind Poor Things who are probably second on the ballot and might sneak in with a win when no one is looking
Unable to see: Anatomy Of A Fall
The theme of the year is “Oppenheimer, You Own Everything” and that’s probably going to happen here. Oppenheimer’s editing keeps the film going at a surprisingly rapid pace, especially considering its 3-hour length. The bombing sequences alone are so tightly cut and assembled that it gives them the energy needed for the final blast to have an impact. That feels like where this film should go, however, it also feels like the flashy semi-stylised editing of Poor Things could take it (and probably should because that film is just a powerhouse) so it won’t shock me if that one jumps in. Of course, we could all be surprised when Killers of the Flower Moon gets it because it’s the longest one and therefore has the most editing, but that’s a long shot
Unable to see: Golda
So here’s another one where I’m kind of stunned Barbie isn’t nominated, Margot’s hair journey alone should’ve gotten it one, but out of what’s here it feels like this one is probably going to go towards Poor Things. One of the most incredible makeups of the year was Willem Dafoe’s mangled face in Poor Things, that one design alone will probably carry this film into Oscar glory. Along that same line, I feel like Society of the Snow should take it for how realistically it handled the slow starvation of the central cast who looked more and more gaunt every time the camera cut back to them. Its hyperrealistic feel helps sell the story and really lets you feel the pain of the main cast. Now the big surprise could be Maestro, mostly because a lot of early news coverage was about the choice of a fake nose for Bradley Cooper during the movie but if you watch it, you barely notice, it’s so well done and the gradual aging makeup is flawless so that being a factor of the press might come into play here.
Unable to see: The Creator, The Zone Of Interest
This is one of those times when I actually agree with Oppenheimer taking the award that it’s probably taking home tonight because one of the big things that I remember from Oppenheimer was how brilliantly it used sound to sell the impact of the nuke. Dead silence has never been used so effectively as a storytelling device as it has here. Nolan said he wanted the audience to feel like they were being hit by the blast and it turns out 95% of how he pulled that off was in how the sound was assembled. That’s not only what will win, but it’s also what should win… naturally, the wild card here is Maestro because a film about a musician winning the sound award is just too perfect
Unable to see: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
I’ll be honest, this year I’m not even sure what score to pick. None of these scores have stuck in my head so long after watching the movies to be iconic. I guess Killers of the Flower Moon would be a great deserving winner because it blends 1920s music with that of the native Americans, while also being a touching tribute to the composer Robbie Robertson who passed away before the film was released. He’s been doing the music for Scorsese since The Last Waltz and this is the first time his music’s been nominated by the Academy so it would be nice if they did this. What’s probably going to happen is that Oppenheimer’s going to win again, which makes sense especially since the music was written by Ludwig Göransson who already has an Oscar for his Black Panther work and won the BAFTA for this, he’s an awards darling and will probably get it again. The wild card here is Indiana Jones. John Williams has been nominated in this category more times than I dare to count but his last time actually getting the award was in 1994 with Schindler’s List. Considering in the years since then he wrote the Harry Potter score, a score so great it’s still easy to love despite JK Rowling being a disgusting TERF, he should have more Oscars on his shelf. You wanna know which movie score of his never got a win for this category? Indiana Jones, a score so iconic even your tone-deaf grandfather could belt out the hook from memory. Yes, I am trying to find a loophole to give the Indiana Jones score an Oscar, the fact I need to do that is remarkable.
For those wanting the trivia answer, Indiana Jones has lost the best score Oscar on 3 separate occasions. It lost to Chariots of Fire, A Passage To India and The Little Mermaid for each of its first three entries (Crystal Skull never got a nomination)… who wants to try and convince me that the Indiana Jones score is worse than A Passage To India? Try it, I dare you!
Unable to see: American Symphony
Do we even need to guess how this one is going to go? Billie Eilish is going to be handed her second Oscar because of What Was I Made For, we all know it and we’re all just accepting it. Hell, it should absolutely take that award because that song is glorious, heartbreaking and one of the most powerful moments of the Barbie movie and of 2023 cinema in general. It’s just a given that Barbie is going to win this award because that song demands it… now, the absolutely hilarious twist on this could be I’m Just Ken actually taking the award everyone assumed it would take when the movie came out. Sure it’s not the most emotional song, but more fun songs should be winning this award and is there a more fun song in cinema this year than I’m Just Ken? That’s going to be where the competition is focused, do the Oscars do the expected thing or do they do the fun thing? They’re going to do the expected thing, though at least we know we’re getting the I’m Just Ken performance at the ceremony. Wahzhazhe is probably the wild card, mostly because of how last year we got shocked when Naatu Naatu took this one home, Wahzahzhe feels like this year’s version of that song.
Unable to see: The Teachers Lounge, Io Capitano, Perfect Days, The Zone Of Interest
Another case of the classic rule “If the international film is nominated for best picture, it’s winning international” so congrats to The Zone of Interest for basically having this award locked down. I would love to say that the other films are competition but, thanks to how awful Australia’s releases can be, at least 3 of them are impossible for me to easily see legally and the fourth one is in a cinema I can’t get to in time. I was led to believe the age of streaming was meant to make it easier to see anything we wanted but apparently, this one area keeps being a major problem, what the fuck is up with that?!
And there are my predictions for the year: what do you think is going to happen and do you think the host will be better than the host of the Golden Globes (trick question, it’d be impossible for him to be worse!). See you on Oscar night!
Movie Meister Reviews 
Well there’s a silly thing to forget. Fixed now 🙂
LikeLike